A focus on Uganda: A Year of unprecedented accountability

Uganda, known for its rich cultural heritage and stunning landscapes, has embarked on a renewed journey in 2024, marked by an intensified fight against corruption and a complex economic landscape. The government, under the leadership of President Yoweri Museveni, has taken significant steps this year to address longstanding issues, particularly in the fight against corruption, while also navigating economic challenges that have shaped the nation’s trajectory.

The fight against corruption: A new era of accountability?

This year, Uganda has witnessed an unprecedented crackdown on corruption, particularly among high-profile Members of Parliament (MPs). For decades, anti-corruption efforts in Uganda were often criticized for being selective, targeting lower-ranking officials while sparing the powerful. However, 2024 has seen a marked change, with the government taking bold steps to ensure accountability at all levels.

Notable arrests

Fairly recently, the government swang into action, arresting a number of key personalities in what appear like a significant shift in Uganda’s approach to fighting corruption. Busiki County MP, Hon. Paul Akamba was arrested alongside Bunyole East MP, Hon. Yusuf Mutembuli and Lwengo District Woman MP, Hon. Cissy Namujju on alleged corruption charges and have since been charged in court.

Trade Ministry Permanent Secretary Geraldine Ssali was also later arrested and charged in the Anti-Corruption Court for causing financial loss and conspiring with Members of Parliament to conspire to steal cooperatives’ cash. She is charged alongside Igara East MP, Michael Mawanda, Elgon County MP, Mudimi Wamakuyu, and Akamba, jointly with Leonard Kavundira, the Principal Cooperative Officer in the Ministry of Trade, and City lawyer, Julius Kirya Taitankoko.

President Museveni has been vocal about his determination to eradicate this vice, declaring, “The politicians and those in the public service have eaten up our country… we shall crush them because they sabotage our economy and service delivery.” His strong rhetoric and the recent high-profile arrests have set a new tone in the country, one of zero tolerance for corruption.

Despite these efforts, the fight against corruption faces significant challenges, particularly in the judicial system. Securing convictions remains difficult, as many cases lack the irrefutable evidence needed for successful prosecution. However, the establishment of a specialized anti-corruption court and the appointment of judges with strong integrity are positive steps toward ensuring that justice is served.

Uganda’s Economic Outlook: Navigating Challenges and Opportunities

While the government’s fight against corruption has dominated headlines, Uganda’s economic landscape has also been a key focus this year. According to a report by the African Development Bank Group, Uganda’s economy grew by 4.6% in 2023, down from 6.3% in 2022. The slowdown was attributed to lower manufacturing output and contractions in food production and public administration, despite strong performances in mining, construction, and hospitality.

Consumer demand and foreign investment have remained robust, and the Bank of Uganda has maintained a tight monetary policy, setting the policy rate at 10.25%. This has helped reduce inflation from 7.2% in 2022 to 5.5% in 2023. However, the country’s net foreign assets declined in the second half of 2023, leading to a slight depreciation of the Ugandan shilling against the US dollar.

Uganda’s government has continued its fiscal consolidation efforts, focusing on reducing expenditures rather than increasing domestic revenue. The fiscal deficit narrowed from 7.4% of GDP in 2021/22 to an estimated 5.1% in 2022/23, and public borrowing has stabilized following a rapid rise in debt due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The public debt-to-GDP ratio increased slightly from 46.3% in 2020 to 49.6% in 2023, but the risk of public debt distress remains moderate, with debt levels considered sustainable.

Despite these challenges, Uganda’s economic outlook is promising. The economy is projected to grow by 6.0% in 2024 and 7.0% in 2025, driven by stronger regional growth and continued investments in the oil sector. Inflation is expected to stabilize at around 5% as tight monetary policies are maintained.

However, there are risks to this outlook. External factors, such as supply chain disruptions around the Red Sea and regional insecurity, could impact trade and investment. Domestically, unexpected increases in public spending on infrastructure amid weak tax revenue performance pose additional risks. The International Monetary Fund’s Extended Credit Facility will provide crucial support, helping to bolster reserves and guide economic performance.

Structural transformation: The path forward

Uganda’s structural transformation remains incomplete, with a significant portion of the population still engaged in low-value agricultural jobs. Despite agriculture’s declining contribution to GDP, from 53% in 1990 to 24% in 2022, seven out of ten Ugandans continue to work directly or indirectly in subsistence farming. While productivity has increased in manufacturing and trade services, these sectors employ a relatively small fraction of the workforce.

To accelerate structural transformation, Uganda needs to focus on boosting agricultural productivity and investing in industrial sectors and services. The government should also prioritize skilling, promoting innovation through research, and increasing mechanization in agriculture. Additionally, there is a need to redirect development financing toward productive sectors and enhance collaboration between international financial institutions and the private sector to provide risk capital for investment.

President Museveni’s commitment to eradicating corruption, combined with strategic investments in key sectors, could pave the way for a more prosperous and equitable future for Uganda. However, the success of these efforts will depend on the government’s ability to sustain its anti-corruption drive and effectively manage the country’s economic challenges.

The Public’s Mixed Reactions

Despite the positive steps taken and the promising economic outlook, there remains significant public outrage over certain areas of the government’s anti-corruption efforts. One of the most glaring examples is the perceived failure to crack down on corruption within the administration of Parliament itself. Instead of addressing the issues head-on, the government has been criticized for arresting youth who had planned a peaceful march to Parliament to protest the gross abuse of public funds. This incident has sparked widespread frustration, with many Ugandans feeling that the government’s efforts are selective and not as comprehensive as promised.

As Uganda continues on its journey toward greater accountability and economic stability, the government will need to address these public concerns to maintain credibility and ensure that its anti-corruption campaign is truly effective. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the strides made this year will lead to lasting change or if the same old patterns will persist.